upslopeOctober 3, 2026 New England rain event — forecast vs. what fell
event hit rate 94%
MAE 0.03″
32 mountains scored
On October 3, 2026, 12 of 32 scored New England ski resorts recorded measurable rain, peaking at 0.48″ near Jay Peak. upslope’s day-before forecasts verified at a 94% event hit rate with a mean absolute error of 0.03″ across 32 mountains. Ground truth: median of CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges near each resort (min 2 reporting).
Mountain by mountain
| Resort | Forecast | Measured | Error | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay PeakVT | 0.4″ | 0.48″ | -0.08″ | ✓ |
| Smugglers' NotchVT | 0.31″ | 0.44″ | -0.13″ | ✓ |
| StoweVT | 0.29″ | 0.37″ | -0.08″ | ✓ |
| BurkeVT | 0.07″ | 0.36″ | -0.29″ | ✗ |
| Bolton ValleyVT | 0.26″ | 0.24″ | +0.02″ | ✓ |
| Mad River GlenVT | 0.22″ | 0.19″ | +0.03″ | ✓ |
| SugarbushVT | 0.18″ | 0.18″ | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| CannonNH | 0.12″ | 0.12″ | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Bretton WoodsNH | 0.11″ | 0.1″ | +0.01″ | ✓ |
| KillingtonVT | 0.22″ | 0.1″ | +0.12″ | ✓ |
| PicoVT | 0.19″ | 0.1″ | +0.09″ | ✓ |
| WildcatNH | 0.05″ | 0.1″ | -0.05″ | ✗ |
| StrattonVT | 0.06″ | 0.06″ | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| BromleyVT | 0.02″ | 0.04″ | -0.02″ | ✓ |
| Mount SnowVT | 0.01″ | 0.04″ | -0.03″ | ✓ |
| OkemoVT | 0.04″ | 0.03″ | +0.01″ | ✓ |
| Magic MountainVT | 0.01″ | 0.02″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| GunstockNH | — | 0.01″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| LoonNH | 0.01″ | 0.01″ | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| SaddlebackME | 0.01″ | 0.01″ | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| SugarloafME | 0.01″ | 0.01″ | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Sunday RiverME | 0.01″ | 0.01″ | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| AttitashNH | 0.01″ | — | +0.01″ | ✓ |
| Berkshire EastMA | 0.01″ | — | +0.01″ | ✓ |
| Black MountainNH | 0.01″ | — | +0.01″ | ✓ |
| CranmoreNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| CrotchedNH | 0.02″ | — | +0.02″ | ✓ |
| Mount SunapeeNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Pats PeakNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| RaggedNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| WachusettMA | 0.01″ | — | +0.01″ | ✓ |
| Waterville ValleyNH | 0.01″ | — | +0.01″ | ✓ |
Scoring fix, Oct 8, 2026: earlier versions compared each gauge report (7am-to-7am) against the forecast for the wrong calendar day; all history was rescored under the corrected rule.
Forecast = upslope's NWS-based rain forecast for the same 7am-to-7am window the gauges measure, from the last run before that window opened. ✓ = correctly called rain above/below 0.1″. Positive error = over-forecast.